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Published | 2023/12/22 |
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Status | article incomplete |
Beau says:
Beau explains the nuances of negotiations in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, cautioning against assuming public statements accurately represent private negotiations and stressing the futility of a military solution.
Activists, Peace Advocates
The full transcript provides detailed insights into the challenges and dynamics of negotiations in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, urging a shift in perspectives and approaches for sustainable peace.
#Negotiations #IsraeliPalestinianConflict #Peacebuilding #InternationalRelations #PublicOpinion
Well, howdy there, internet people.
Let's vote again.
So today, we are going to talk about negotiations,
how they're progressing, if they're progressing,
what's happening, public statements,
and we're gonna answer a question.
Now, I try very, very hard to answer the question
that is asked when people send in messages.
Can't do that with this one
because there's an assumption baked into the question
that may not be true.
And it's really important to understand that
as all of this progresses.
If you have no idea what I'm talking about,
there are a lot of reports that suggest
that the Palestinian side has basically been like,
yeah, we don't care about negotiations.
We're not negotiating anymore.
You're going to call a ceasefire
before we even talk about captives or prisoners or hostages or whatever term you want to use.
You're calling the ceasefire on your own, and then we'll negotiate.
And that, of course, has surprised some people.
Here's one question.
What are they doing?
I marched for a ceasefire.
Now they're refusing to negotiate?
WTF. Why? Why are they doing this? Okay, you don't know that they are. Start there.
In the international poker game where everybody is cheating, the public statements, those don't
always accurately reflect what's being said at the negotiating table. So that question, why are
are they doing this? You don't actually know that they are. All of the statements
that are to this effect, they are for public consumption. They're rhetoric. We
don't know that that's the position that they have at the table. If they do have
that position at the table, where they're like, yeah, we're not even gonna talk
about exchanges until there's a ceasefire, yeah, they're trying to end the
negotiations, that's just a non-starter, all of that would be discussed at once.
It seems, it's not impossible that this is their position, but it seems unlikely.
Just remember, public statements do not reflect what is being said at that table, and I'll
give you just examples from this conflict.
Just a few days ago, Israel, their public statements, we're not negotiating.
We're not going to negotiate.
Not at all.
It's not going to happen.
Meanwhile, they had people actively trying to restart the negotiations while that was
being said in public.
Another one, Biden coming out right away.
Israel has our full, unequivocal support.
The very first advisor they send over, yeah, y'all don't want to do this.
He risks turning a tactical victory into a strategic defeat here.
Not exactly unequivocal, right?
What is said in public and what is said in private aren't the same.
So the question is not why are they doing this?
Question is, if they are, why are they doing this?
Because they believe Israel is turning a tactical victory into a strategic defeat.
For that October 9th video, the question, why would they do this?
What do they hope to accomplish?
What they're about to get?
The strategy of the Palestinian side is to be the anvil.
Not the one that dishes out the most, but the one that takes the most.
Because when they take those hits, it shifts international opinion.
It centers their cause in the public eye.
It force-generates, it increases recruitment for their side.
All of those reasons.
If they believe that the recruitment exceeds their losses, if they believe that the benefits
public opinion swaying outweigh the losses, then yeah, they would, see I don't think they
would stop the negotiations though. They would hamper them. They would delay them. Maybe they
would put out some rhetoric to kind of slow things down because they believe that Israel,
So while it may be winning the fight, it's losing the war.
It's a strategy that is deployed around the world and that very well may be what they're
thinking if the public statements match what's being said at the table.
Just remember they almost never do.
This may be a much more hard-line stance, a harder-line version of what's being said
at the table.
So that would be your reason, is that they believe that if it continues, then Israel
is going to take a bigger loss.
Having gone through that, I want to remind everybody there is no military solution here.
Neither side can achieve a decisive victory with the victory conditions they have set.
what they have as their version of we won, neither side can achieve a decisive victory.
Both can lose, both can be defeated over and over and over again, but they can't win.
The victory conditions have to change.
that each side views as an integral piece of their campaign and what they're hoping
to accomplish, each side has a component that makes an actual victory impossible.
Those have to change.
Until then, it's going to just go on.
The other thing to keep in mind about this is that all the people that I saw making these
statements, they are all Hamas.
For those people who have been wondering why I say Palestinian forces instead of Hamas,
it's because there's other groups and we don't know if this hard-line stance is shared by
the other groups. And we do know that some of the other groups have custody
of some of the captives. So they would have to be on board with it. And we
haven't seen anything from them, at least not at time of filming, that suggests
they share this opinion. So again, there's a lot here that suggests this is
for public consumption, not really their negotiating stance. But we don't know
that yet. We have to... what the public doesn't know is what makes us the public,
right? We need more information. I don't know that this is their
position, but it is one that they might adopt if they believe they are winning.
And Israel's military victories are not going to translate to a political one.
Remember, war is continuation of politics by other means. If they believe that the
military victory is going to result in a political defeat for Israel, then they
may want it to continue, because in their mind it will lead to that victory.
one more time there is no military solution here anyway it's just a thought
Y'all have a good day.
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