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Beau says:
The United States abstaining from veto power at the UN signals potential consequences for Israel's actions, but peace remains elusive.
Diplomatic analysts
Context on the broader implications of these diplomatic developments in the Israel-Palestine conflict.
#UnitedNations #Ceasefire #Diplomacy #Israel #Palestine #InternationalRelations
Well, howdy there internet people, it's Beau again.
So today we are going to talk about the developments
that occurred up at the United Nations.
We're going to run through what happened,
we're gonna run through the responses,
we're going to run through the signaling,
and just kind of go over what it means
for things downstream.
Because it's a big change.
Okay, so as suggested in the last video on this topic,
the United States did not exercise its veto power.
Didn't support it, didn't support the resolution,
but didn't exercise its veto power,
which means it went through.
It went through.
Was a call for a ceasefire.
In response, Netanyahu canceled a delegation
that was headed to the United States to discuss RAFA.
Under normal circumstances, canceling a delegation like that it's a diplomatic
protest. In this case it reinforced the US position. It's important to to
remember and to truly understand US foreign policy does not care if Netanyahu
pursues a campaign against Hamas. That's not what this is about. This is about a
large-scale offensive into Rafa. Netanyahu canceling a delegation to discuss that just
reinforced the U.S. position that he wasn't taking their concerns seriously and was kind of blowing
it off. When that occurred, the people in State Department who argued for the U.S. to abstain,
they won the argument. They won the argument. Those people who have been
arguing for a tougher stance, that response reinforced to their position.
Now there is other signaling that's worth noting. The administration through
Harris has signaled that there will be consequences if Israel goes ahead with
offensive in Turafah. The conventional thinking was that, well, that would mean that they
would abstain, but they already did that. They already abstained. The U.S. already abstained.
That's not the consequence. If they go into Turafah, since the U.S. has decided not to
use its veto power, that means that the only real consequences left on the table are
economic sanctions against settlers on a large scale or the complete suspension
of offensive military aid. So the situation and the relationship with
between Netanyahu and Biden, tense doesn't cut it. This was a big
development. Now, there are a lot of people who have sent messages meaning is
it over, asking if it's over. There are a lot of people who have images of troops
with blue helmets moving in and stopping everything. No, no. This is more
significant than the ICJ. The UN has teeth, but the UN doesn't have troops.
Those troops that you see with the blue helmets, they're contributed by
other nations. The UN doesn't have troops of its own. The US has had a really hard
time finding countries that would be willing to commit their troops to
reconstruction efforts afterward. The idea that a bunch of troops, or a bunch of
countries are going to sign up to put their troops in a situation where
they're enforcing a ceasefire that really neither side has agreed to when
they were reluctant to put their troops in to enforce a ceasefire that both sides
might agree to. The odds of that are slim to none. There's a chance but it's not a
big one. And no, it doesn't actually stop it. It doesn't stop it. It puts a lot of
pressure on things and it can definitely alter the outcome. It is definitely
significant, but it's not a it's not a thing where this vote happened and now
everybody goes home. It's not how it works. But it can't be... the part of this
that really shouldn't be overlooked is, yes, the ceasefire vote. It went through.
Okay, a lot of international pressure now. But the way it went through with the
U.S. abstaining and promising more, quote, consequences, if there's an offensive
and to RAFA, that's the bigger development. That's going to, it should, in theory, have
more sway. I know that there's also a number of European nations who are suggesting they're
ready to recognize a Palestinian state. So there have been a lot of developments, but this doesn't
mean peace, not yet. So we'll see what happens. It's going to take a little bit
to kind of process through all of this for the various nations. It's worth
noting that the US-backed proposal for the negotiations, it wasn't a breakthrough
but they finally got somewhere and it's that Israel has agreed to a higher
number when it comes to the exchange. We don't know if that's going to if that's
going to move into something a little bit more tenable or further in the
negotiations, but it's a big change in positioning. So there's a lot going on
and there's reason to be semi hopeful, but it's still not over. You still don't
have peace because of the resolution. It's more pressure. Anyway, it's just a thought.
Y'all have a good day.
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